Predicts the Ecological Risks of PESTicides
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PERPEST is a model that Predicts the Ecological Risks of PESTicides in freshwater ecosystems. This system predicts the effects of a particular concentration of a pesticide on various (community) endpoints, based on empirical data extracted from the literature, see figure below. The method that it uses is called Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), a technique that solves new problems (e.g., what is the effect of pesticide A?) by using past experience (e.g., published microcosm experiments). The database containing the “past experience” has been constructed by performing a review of freshwater model ecosystem studies evaluating the effects of pesticides. This review assessed the effects on various endpoints (e.g. community metabolism, phytoplankton, macro-invertebrates) and classified them according to their magnitude and duration. The PERPEST model searches for situations in the database which resemble the question case, based on relevant (toxicity) characteristics of the compound. This allows the model to predict effects of pesticides for which no evaluation on a semi-field scale have been published. PERPEST results in a prediction showing the probability of classes of effects (no, slight or clear effects, plus an optional indication of recovery) on the various grouped endpoints. The model is described in the scientific paper written by Van den Brink et al. (2002). Please use the Contactform to request more information about PERPEST.

Modelversions

Currently there are three versions to download of the PERPEST model:
  • Version 1 is the original version that is released in 2003 and described in Van den Brink et al., 2002 and 2005. The manual of this version is available (Van Nes and Van den Brink, 2003)
  • Version 2 is released in 2007 and has an extended data base. The first version could only predict the effects of insecticides and herbicides whereas the second version also includes fungicides. This version can also evaluate the effects of insecticide, herbicide and fungicide mixtures, separately. For this version no updated manual is available but is thoroughly tested.
  • Version 3 is released in 2009 and can predict the effects based on more complex exposure endpoints than the peak alone. It can predict the effects of single and multiple applications on the basis of the highest peak concentration and 7-day and 21-day Time Weighted Average concentrations. in 2010 the model will be elaborated so it can also deal with mixtures of insecticides, herbicides and fungicides, after which it will be thoroughly tested. In 2010 also an updated manual will be available.

Example of output from Perpest


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